MUMBAI, APRIL 29, 2026: India should brace for geopolitical disruptions every one to two years and use the current pause in tensions to push through long‑pending structural reforms, Axis Bank chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said at Kotak Private Banking’s Take and Counter Take (TACT). Speaking at the invitation‑only forum curated by Kotak Private, Mishra argued that while immediate fears of escalation have receded following calls for a two‑week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, the broader cycle of shocks is unlikely to end.
“This is part of a grand war between America and China,” Mishra said at the session, moderated by Kotak Asset Management managing director Nilesh Shah. “Until those equations settle, we should expect disruptions every one to two years.” The lesson for India, he added, is not to wait for stability, but to build resilience into the economy while growth conditions still allow for hard decisions.
Mishra focused on what he described as the second‑order effects of conflict, arguing that wars hurt less through headlines and more through supply chains. “This is bad for India, but it is terribly bad for the world,” he said. Disruptions to energy, chemicals, fertilisers, logistics and aviation, he warned, can quietly stall production far from the battlefield. If four percent of global energy flows are disrupted, Mishra said, “it effectively means four percent of global GDP is taken out,” even before spillovers into tourism, manufacturing and trade finance are felt.
‘Feels like 1989-93, but India better prepared’
Despite that, Mishra struck a notably steady tone on India’s preparedness. Compared with past episodes of global stress, he said, India is entering this phase with stronger buffers. “Compared to any other time in our history, we are much better prepared to deal with this,” he said, recalling a conversation with a senior policymaker who likened today’s environment to the turbulent 1989–93 period. The difference now, Mishra noted, lies in deeper capital markets, more robust external balances and greater policy credibility.
Crucially, Mishra argued that the pain now visible across markets and supply chains makes the current moment unusually conducive to reform. “This is very painful for the world,” he said, “but it will end.” When it does, he added, economic momentum will return and countries that acted during the slowdown will emerge stronger. Waiting for calm before acting, he cautioned, would be a mistake.
He singled out electrification as a strategic priority, noting that India remains far more vulnerable to oil and gas shocks than peers because too little end‑use energy consumption is electric. Accelerating electrification, combined with better energy pricing, would reduce exposure to geopolitics while improving efficiency, he said. Housing and urban infrastructure were also areas where policy could move decisively, creating domestic demand that is largely insulated from global volatility.
‘Take tough decisions now’
Tourism and services reform featured prominently in Mishra’s recommendations. India, he said, has “some of the most expensive tourism in the world,” driven in part by restrictive zoning and floor‑space norms. Relaxing hotel FSI and improving urban capacity would lower costs, raise competitiveness and create employment at scale. “It’s only when our backs are to the wall that we take tough decisions,” he said, arguing that reform windows rarely announce themselves more clearly.
While Mishra addressed economic resilience, fellow panellist Major Gaurav Arya focused on security risks, warning of increased terror incidents and calling for higher defence spending. Shah tied the two strands together, underscoring that growth, security and reform are no longer separable conversations.
The ceasefire may offer temporary relief, Mishra suggested, but not complacency. “This phase will pass,” he said. “The question is whether we use it.”
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